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Yet More Evidence Of The Property Slowdown

190 ratings | 2476 views
We examine the latest ABS data on housing lending finance, and consider the consequences. AFR article: https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/citi-slams-residential-lending-brakes-amid-warnings-of-looming-property-crunch-20180611-h1195w
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Text Comments (75)
markiiee90 (1 day ago)
Hey Martin, my partner and i both live in sydney and have a 20% deposit for a median priced house. We are sick of renting and just want to buy a home. Is the next 3 months a good time to make a purchase?
Walk The World (1 day ago)
See my video should I buy now? https://youtu.be/lMSdnOAqm6Y Ir really depends on your circumstances... be aware prices are likely to fall further...
Yusuf Maltese (3 days ago)
So looks like lending is down and prices are going down but debt is increasing not a good sign
Walk The World (3 days ago)
Yes, all pointing the same way..
MrRogueStaffy (4 days ago)
https://youtu.be/VXthajMiwMo. Seems Canada is facing very similar scenario as us here in Australia
Walk The World (4 days ago)
Yes, but our debt ratios are worse..
van huynh (6 days ago)
Thanks Martin
Chris Bishop (6 days ago)
Why do real estate agents call a downturn a "correcting market"? Doesn't that imply the rapid price growth of the last 5 years was incorrect ( I believe morally it was)? When is a house price correct? A house is only worth what a bank will lend an investor to buy it. Often leveraged against the equity of other highly leveraged properties... How is that correct?!
Walk The World (6 days ago)
Correction is often seen as a fall of 10%, but you are right, correction from what... from current too higher values... its mainly double talk.
Tom Coughlan (6 days ago)
When the auction clearance stalls that's it its all over . Keep up the great work martin
Walk The World (6 days ago)
Thanks
The Alternative (6 days ago)
Thanks again Martin for your ongoing detailed analysis on the real financial news. What do you think of the bail in laws passed through on the 14th of Feb 2018? Also do you have any knowledge on the banking act 1959? I have questions I need people to help me answer them. Thank you
Walk The World (6 days ago)
I did a post on this. https://youtu.be/OF87GuzQDb0
songforguy1 (6 days ago)
The next 6-12 months should see the majority of the fall, 50% + isn't unrealistic for some areas.
Walk The World (6 days ago)
Yes going down..
Free 2B (6 days ago)
Brilliant as usual, much appreciated information,great choice of back ground contrast.Outstanding👍
Walk The World (6 days ago)
Thanks...
Arthur Treibs (6 days ago)
Hi folks, if you ever thought we had too many newbuilts, check out Canada; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYO9LHJ0Rjg
Walk The World (6 days ago)
Wow..
George Varnerin (7 days ago)
Drought coming into effect. Cattle industry feeling affect
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Very true, the upcoming RC hearings will be interesting...
Billy Roberts (7 days ago)
In the old days if you earned $100k they would say don't a home more than $300k (3 times household incomes), now certain cities rations are from 6-10 times that- ex- $100k now buying homes $600k-$1million plus. I am currently reading book by Michael Yardney and all he talks is property growth forever. As the old saying for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.
Gav Cook (6 days ago)
Walk The World....Yep crazy stuff....if the 7 - 10 year double rubbish continues for another 20 - 30 years the present median price in Sydney of approx. $1m ends up in the stratosphere and the current high 6 - 10 LTI blown apart.....it's complete and utter madness defying basic arithmetic.
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Its impossible for property to continue to track so far from fundamentals, they will revert, one way or the other...
Monte (7 days ago)
Thanks Martin...the tide has changed, the impact of this is enormous with flow on impacting right through the economy. Just like a junkie the govt was/is addicted to that stamp duty revenue. The retail sector will feel this as well if lines of credit are restricted. When you have an economy that is built on consumer driven debt it was inevitable. Great Stats and thanks for sharing.
Greg Tyson (7 days ago)
Yeah. I think State Gov't (particularly NSW) will be revisiting their business cases on many populist projects as stamp duty revenue declines.
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Thanks - been hooked on debt for so long, so the withdrawal symptoms will be profound
patrick salmon (7 days ago)
I have always been sceptical when people say property only goes up in value or double every 10 years. It seems to me it is poor short sighted logic when everyone has reached their maximum debt levels and our economy is running on the smell of an oily rag
Gav Cook (6 days ago)
patrick salmon.....yep complete madness. Grab a calculator and wack in $1m (approx. Sydney median price) and compound at 7.2% - 10.28% (rate of 7 - 10 year double) for 20 - 30 years.....you end up with telephone book numbers. Then compound the current average wage of 100k at approx. 3% (wage growth rate) to work out the likely LTI. So unless the banks give people almost free money to play with or sell off all of the real estate to China, it ain't going to work.
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Gravity will out...
Jane Smith (7 days ago)
Unlike most people on the internet claiming "Housing Bubble/Crisis/Downturn" with no references at all... DFA provides statistical and empirical evidence to support their argument. Thanks Martin, cheers mate :)
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Thanks, yeas heavy on data here, so people can decide for themselves - as adults would...
patrick salmon (7 days ago)
Hi Martin, love the content. With Sydney’s lowering prices, what can we expect in the regions surrounding Sydney? Are they more exposed to a Sydney property crunch?
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Suspect the falls will spillover, already seeing some slowing in the regions, but the falls will be less, as have been the rises...
Meggie Dijk (7 days ago)
Thanks Martin. I prefer your posts over tv news... LOL!! Keep ‘em coming
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Great to hear, thanks...
7555tx 7555tx (7 days ago)
Thanks Martin. More alarming news!
7555tx 7555tx (6 days ago)
Good news will be a welcome change.
Walk The World (7 days ago)
It keeps coming ... if I see good news I will also report that too by the way...
M G (7 days ago)
Liking the production changes - dark background and not changing the zoom between scenes. Content is excellent as always
M G (7 days ago)
Could you do a 4 scenarios revisited video? Maybe 6 months after the original and talk about how we are tracking
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Thanks, yes, experimenting with the set a bit. But prime focus will be the content..
Dale Cunningham (7 days ago)
Great video as always and diggin the new background!
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Thanks...
Greg Tyson (7 days ago)
Yesterday I noticed several properties in affluent Sydney inner west suburb with 'postponed' plastered over their auction signs. I've not seen this before in this suburb.
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Its endemic, thats why the number reaching auctions are so far down...
Rhi McKeon (7 days ago)
Citi Bank's changes are considerable. Hmmm. Glad I didn't suffer from FOMO. I'll just keep saving and waiting. Thank you Martin.
Walk The World (7 days ago)
I agree more lenders will follow...
Greg Tyson (7 days ago)
Yes, I agree Rhi. Will probably become the norm across the board.
Geoff Mtchell (7 days ago)
Currently stuck and should be settling on the house Friday. Buyer has not yet been approved the final settlement amount. I think this is more common than is being discussed in mainstream media. I’m forced to charge the penalty interest as prices look set to slide further. What a mess! Great work again Martin. Love the new black background!
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Sorry to hear, yes, in the current unstable environment hearing this quite often. Often its the lender asking for a revised valuation prior to settling... messy.
Ryan Conaroya (7 days ago)
Thank's again Martin. A lot of us have been calling lower house prices for a while now but for me it's still somewhat of  shock to see it happen so quickly. So many people I know are completely borrowed up to their maximum equity that if fear even a 10% decline could wipe them out.
Ryan Conaroya (6 days ago)
Don't know about that but I do know they are using it for new cars and overseas holidays.
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Yes, many have been using the property as an ATM, now being caught out. I will do a post on rate sensitivity down the track, there are many with no wriggle room at all...
Greg Tyson (7 days ago)
Cheers Ryan. Are these folk using equity to pay bills etc?
RaoulDuke6666 (7 days ago)
Thanks Martin. Really enjoying every upload. It's fantastic to get data-based insight instead of Channel 9 News spruiking price rises every week.
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Thanks, appreciated. No spin here, just facts...
Dane Taylor (7 days ago)
Great content Martin, thank you so much for making it available. It would be great to see you interview other experts, i really enjoyed your most recent one. Steve Keen is someone who comes to mind but I'm sure you have your own ideas. Look forward to more content
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Thanks, I am working on some other interviews...
Bill Hollingsworth (7 days ago)
The RBA's governance of the interest rates has all the subtlety of a country buck's night. It chooses a large sledgehammer that hits everyone.instead of having a range of interest rates that can be adjusted according to postcode thus cooling markets down when overheated while relaxing rates in depressed areas. One would think that it is all too hard for the federal government to regulate our monetary system and instead easier and a lot more fun to hand the keys of the blood bank over to Dracula because a bloodbath of one description or another seems inevitable. Asleep at the wheel doesn't begin to describe the lack of economic leadership in this country.
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Debt has become the drug of choice, and the pain is visible now... Our leader took the easy win route, not the right route - we will all end up paying I fear...
Bill Hollingsworth (7 days ago)
Its pretty hard to hide a house, loans are for specific purposes not a case full of money to run off anywhere you like with. They have varying rates for all sorts of loans so giving depressed areas cheap money makes perfect sense if they are for owner occupiers only.
Ahmed A (7 days ago)
Bill Hollingsworth I disagree. What's to stop people borrowing money from one part of the country to put it in another thats frothy? It's a pathetic state of affairs when a commodity like shelter dictates economic prosperity.
Arthur Treibs (7 days ago)
AAA+++ as always!!!
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Thanks..
x y (7 days ago)
Hi Martin what is your thoughts on buying a house within 2 years I am waiting for a correction on house price in WA I know it’s already down but
Wing Kee Chan (7 days ago)
Yes, though WA had fallen first, I doubt it would lead the country into recovery. Prices would move sideways after hitting bottom and await recovery in the more prominent capital cities.
Walk The World (7 days ago)
WA will wobble sideways, at best, and may fall further if there is spillage from the east coast. So, might be worth biding your time..
Wing Kee Chan (7 days ago)
x y - I would keep track of the mortgage rate in the next few years. It should rise and then plateau. That's the time to begin shopping around. Take your time.
Bruce Parkes (7 days ago)
Mainstream news actually saying thd same. Always late.
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Finally the are...
Great observation...always late. More often than not too late.
Subscribers building nicely commensurate with declining property markets. Thanks again for your ongoing commentary on finance matters. Cheers OD
@ Walk The World... Lol that would be rather fun but need to invert property market curve for correlation. Hope you have a really enjoyable day. Cheers from OD
Walk The World (7 days ago)
Yes, perhaps I should plot a graph...

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