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Confidence Intervals: Crash Course Statistics #20

675 ratings | 20238 views
Today we’re going to talk about confidence intervals. Confidence intervals allow us to quantify our uncertainty, by allowing us to define a range of values for our predictions and assigning a likelihood that something falls within that range. And confidence intervals come up a lot like when you get delivery windows for packages, during elections when pollsters cite margin of errors, and we use them instinctively in everyday decisions. But confidence intervals also demonstrate the tradeoff of accuracy for precision - the greater our confidence, usually the less useful our range. Crash Course is on Patreon! You can support us directly by signing up at http://www.patreon.com/crashcourse Thanks to the following Patrons for their generous monthly contributions that help keep Crash Course free for everyone forever: Mark Brouwer, Glenn Elliott, Justin Zingsheim, Jessica Wode, Eric Prestemon, Kathrin Benoit, Tom Trval, Jason Saslow, Nathan Taylor, Divonne Holmes à Court, Brian Thomas Gossett, Khaled El Shalakany, Indika Siriwardena, SR Foxley, Sam Ferguson, Yasenia Cruz, Eric Koslow, Caleb Weeks, Tim Curwick, Evren Türkmenoğlu, D.A. Noe, Shawn Arnold, Ruth Perez, Malcolm Callis, Ken Penttinen, Advait Shinde, Cody Carpenter, Annamaria Herrera, William McGraw, Bader AlGhamdi, Vaso, Melissa Briski, Joey Quek, Andrei Krishkevich, Rachel Bright, Alex S, Mayumi Maeda, Kathy & Tim Philip, Montather, Jirat, Eric Kitchen, Moritz Schmidt, Ian Dundore, Chris Peters, Sandra Aft -- Want to find Crash Course elsewhere on the internet? Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/YouTubeCrashCourse Twitter - http://www.twitter.com/TheCrashCourse Tumblr - http://thecrashcourse.tumblr.com Support Crash Course on Patreon: http://patreon.com/crashcourse CC Kids: http://www.youtube.com/crashcoursekids
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Text Comments (68)
martha solomon (58 minutes ago)
Where was this when I was in 9th grade 😂🤔
Miri Smerling (4 hours ago)
you have singlehandedly saved my statistics grade thank you!
victor noagbodji (6 hours ago)
ah stats... always very intuitive at the beginning. and then becomes less and less intuitive. it's just new terms and formula at some point. there is no "big picture" to help you find where you are or why you are there. anyways, great explanation as always.
steven welkenhuysen (7 hours ago)
Thank you Amy Adams for giving this coherent Crash course on statistics! (Instead of the Linguistics course you would expect)
Arnie Nelson (12 hours ago)
Flaming Basketball Club (15 hours ago)
Awesome series!!!!
Number 9 (2 days ago)
Just realized why I was mesmerized. sss st st sss sh sss st st sss ss I had to work hard on that when I was younger. Good audio since it is normally considered a "distraction"... wait
Emma Eccles (1 day ago)
Number 9 I can't stop hearing the ss now
Agostina Romero (2 days ago)
traducción al español por favorr
iReality (2 days ago)
I’ve always thought that if a CI contained 0, it’s not significant? Am I wrong here?
Amorphant (3 days ago)
Confidence interval for appearance of gold pants?
John Smith (3 days ago)
Keep it up! If I remember accurately there is not much left for this section of the course :D
Art Curious (3 days ago)
Hillary has a 98% of winning.......wait what?
Sanjeev Rao (3 days ago)
Dear John and Hank Green, I love your channel, I subbed to them all. You're funny, but you also make history and literature fun. As for you, Hank, you make science fun! I saw the other channels (CrashCourse Kids, SciShow, SciShow Kids), and you are awesome. Best wishes, Your number one fan. PS: I watch you guys every single day!
JAMES PURKS (3 days ago)
But the p value will vary depending on whether you are using the .05 level (used here) or an .01 level which is more stringent.
zenedanzxa (3 days ago)
could you please explain the BLP model in the next video?... that would be very usefull for me..
svwtsvfcb (3 days ago)
I have my statistics exam in 2 days and believe me, I'm not 95% confident of succeeding at all
naihanchin Kempo (4 days ago)
feel like i'm in a Casino with the stupid sound f/x
TalysAlankil (4 days ago)
Ha, "buying" music…yeah…i totally do that…
Shian (4 days ago)
Well, now you have to wear gold pants next week...
un ace (4 days ago)
Congrats on 7.8m subs
Jari Komppa (4 days ago)
So if you're really lucky, that chocolate bar contains infinite calories.
David Campos (4 days ago)
I should have been more specific. It's the true believers in computers who will fight the indefinite to save time and or electricity, because that's where they came from in the first place.
Ross Parlette (4 days ago)
I'm 95% that there'll be more than 3 fillings needed,
Jake Graham (4 days ago)
Phil (4 days ago)
There should be a link in the description to the topic play list
Daniel Houck (4 days ago)
The forms of colorblindness I'm aware of are all genetic. I don't think we have a simple medication that could work like the one described.
scarabbi (4 days ago)
In a paper almost certainly prepared for a statistics class, someone found the mean length of 30 randomly selected top 100 songs from iTunes was 226.93 seconds. Seventy songs of that length will last you through a 4 hour 24 minute marathon.
David Campos (4 days ago)
The delivery guy will come by on the statistical 11ish. My impression is that computers will fight the indefinite by shooting the delivery guy, due to conservation of time and electricity.
Ape-ocalypse (4 days ago)
One thing that's really confusing: given a sample and then calculating a 95% confidence interval for that sample, you cannot say that there is a 95% chance that the population mean is within that confidence interval. This is because every sample has other features besides mean and standard deviation that will determine how likely it is that the mean will fall within that confidence interval. If we just use the mean and standard deviation, the 95% confidence interval is the best guess we can make for where the mean will fall 95% of the time, and indeed for 95% of samples, the mean will fall within our confidence interval. However, if we have the most advanced statistical modelling tools known to man and other features of our sample besides the mean and standard deviation, we would know the exact probability that the population mean is within our confidence interval, which is likely not exactly 95%
Andy Brice (1 day ago)
I have never found an explanation of this that isn't highly confusing and vehemently disputed. Any recommended resources that can help me make sense of it?
Sylorinnis (3 days ago)
This is not true. The only true interpretation of the 95% confidence interval is that if you were to redraw the sample and construct the corresponding confidence interval multiple times over and over again, the percentage of confidence intervals that contain the population mean tends to 95%.
Kruft. (4 days ago)
Y'all got a faint 60Hz hum here too. Is there a problem in your Indianapolis building?
grumly85 (4 days ago)
I’d have to buy the whole music store to finish my marathon. Which consequently would make me sure to finish it. Nice trick!
R3Testa (4 days ago)
I've got every Grateful Dead studio album on my phone, so there's no way I'll be finishing a marathon.
Raymond K Petry (4 days ago)
*_...95% has been around for decades, so, why, 95%—I'd use system theory to spec. returns..._*
James Wijaya (4 days ago)
Yay statistics :):):)
Francois Lacombe (4 days ago)
I am 95% confident there won't be gold lame pants next week.
Flaming Basketball Club (15 hours ago)
Francois Lacombe I am 95% confident that Brazil wins the 2018 World Cup. 😄😄😄😄😄
Lauren Divitto (4 days ago)
Incase you didn’t know, crash course, the AP test was weeks ago.
Christian Craig (4 days ago)
Lauren Divitto I look these videos now and like "nope, never gonna think of stats again😄" lol
ahmad fahadh ilyas (4 days ago)
If we calculated 5 CI and it turn out that all CI didn't contain true population, is it considered as bad luck? Lol But seriously is it possible? .-.
Chelsea Parlett (4 days ago)
ahmad fahadh ilyas it is possible, though unlikely!
Morgan Larson (4 days ago)
Haha now I’m the last comment
Malak Mustafa (4 days ago)
Last comment
Whatup info (4 days ago)
Good job!!!
Pfhorrest (4 days ago)
Why would you buy new music just to load up a running playlist? Just put a suitably-long selection of your existing music on there.
Natalie McCarthy (3 days ago)
Pfhorrest or you could just buy the 70 songs and put them on shuffle and repeat
Shahat Alam (4 days ago)
11th comment
[ Duwang_Mn ] (4 days ago)
Confidence and Stastics are words that people usually wouldnt put in the same sentence
tom ekblom (4 days ago)
"I have no confidence about thees statistics"
Crust Bread (4 days ago)
Aadi Bhavsar (4 days ago)
Who read the description
Matic Gabor (4 days ago)
Had to look away from dentist scenes
Aadi Bhavsar (4 days ago)
10th view
Aadi Bhavsar (4 days ago)
Fourth comment
Farhan Jamadar (4 days ago)
3rd comment
_Aesthetic_ For Life (4 days ago)
Quinius (4 days ago)
Great video!

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